WASHINGTON - The U.S. Agriculture Department on Friday raised its forecast of 1998 per capita U.S beef consumption for the fourth time since May of this year, despite a recent massive hamburger recall.
In its monthly supply-and-demand report, USDA forecast the average consumer would eat 65.7 pounds of beef in 1998, up slightly from its September forecast of 65.6 pounds and its initial May projection of 64.7 pounds.
In August, USDA forced the Hudson Food Co to volunitarily recall 25 million pounds of frozen hamburger patties due to contamination with a virulent strain of E. coli bacteria. However, USDA analysts say they have yet to see any significant downturn in U.S. demand as a result of the hamburger recall - which generated widepread press coverage.
Per capita beef consumption is expected to fall in 1998, from an estimated 67.2 pounds in 1997, reflecting a long-term trend and higher prices due to a drop in production.
But despite the Hudson Foods scare, USDA's most recent estimate of 1997 per capita consumption is both unchanged from last month and slightly higher than its May 1996 forecast of 67.1 million pounds.
USDA analysts also saw little sign that U.S. beef exports would be harmed by South Korea's claim that it found E. coli in a recent shipment of 18.18 tonnes.
USDA forecast U.S. beef exports at nearly 2.10 billion pounds in 1998, up from about 1.92 billion in 1997. Both estimates were unchanged from last month.
Over the long term, beef still faces stiff competition from pork and poultry which continue to grow in popularity.
USDA on Friday forecast per capita pork consumption in 1998 at 51.7 pounds, up nearly 8 percent from 48.0 pounds in 1997.
Meanwhile, poultry demand continues to edge closer to the 100-pound-per-person mark.
USDA pegged per capita poultry consumption in 1998 at 96.8
pounds, up more than 5 percent from 91.7 pounds in 1997.
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