080101 U.S. Meat Output RisingJanuary 21, 2007Washington -The forecast for total 2008 U.S. meat production is raised reflecting higher beef and pork production, while broiler and turkey production forecasts are unchanged, according to forecast from the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. Beef production is raised in 2008 as higher cattle on feed inventories on December 1 are expected to result in stronger marketings during the first part of 2008. However, higher feed costs could limit weight gains through much of 2008. The Cattle report, to be released February 1, will provide an indication of the availability of cattle outside feedlots and of producer intentions for herd expansion this year. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released December 27, resulted in an expanded forecast of 2008 pork production. Increased sows farrowing in late 2007 and stronger growth in pigs per litter resulted in higher pig crops. These large pig crops in second-half 2007 are expected to result in higher slaughter in the first half of 2008. Second-half production in 2008 is also increased based upon expected gains in pigs per litter and producer farrowing intentions. However, increased feed prices are expected to limit weight gains. Meat production forecasts for 2007 are increased slightly to reflect estimated December meat production. Meat export forecasts for 2007 are raised reflecting strong October trade data and expectations of continued strength in a number of export markets. Pork and broiler export forecasts for 2008 are raised, but beef and turkey exports are unchanged. Forecasts for 2008 cattle prices are raised because fed cattle supplies are expected to remain tight during the year. Hog price forecasts for 2008 are reduced on expanded supplies of hogs. The broiler price forecast for 2008 is fractionally higher as recent price strength carries into first quarter 2008. Forecast egg prices are increased through the first half of the year on strong demand and slow production response to record high prices.
E-mail: sflanagan@sprintmail.com |
