060128 USDA Confirms Expansion of U.S. Cattle HerdJanuary 28, 2006Omaha - There were 97.1 million head of cattle and calves in the U.S. on Jan. 1, 2006, a 2 percent increase over a year ago, according to the semi-annual cattle inventory released by USDA after markets closed Friday. The numbers fell well within ranges of pre-report guesses, and should have little effect on futures Monday, said DTN Livestock Analyst John Harrington. The most-watched number in the report, the total cow population, was at 42.3 million, up 1 percent from a year ago. "If anything, the cow total came in somewhat smaller than we expected. Perhaps dry pasture conditions in certain areas are working to limit the aggressive retention of heifers and the general growth of the beef factory," Harrington said. Even if there's no immediate market impact, the long-term implications of the report must be recognized, Harrington said. "Cattle arithmetic has seriously launched the relentless function of compounding. In short, the rate of herd expansion can only accelerate from here, as larger cow herds have larger calf crops, which trigger greater herd retention. "There are always wildcards like drought and foreign trade debacles. But barring major calamities such as these, historical production behavior and the unavoidable implications of country math could easily mean that cow numbers could increase by another 4 million to 5 million head by the end of the decade," Harrington said.
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