Washington - Russian economic woes are now forecast to reduce U.S. red meat and poultry exports to 8.77 billion pounds in 1999, down more than 6% from the previous estimate of 9.40 billion, U.S. Agriculture Department said.
In its monthly supply-and-demand report, USDA also lowered its forecast of 1998 U.S. red meat and poultry exports to 8.90 billion pounds, down nearly 4% from the September estimate of 9.27 billion.
"The largest impact is on (poultry) broiler exports, as Russia is the number one market for U.S. broiler exports," USDA said. But the department also trimmed its beef and pork export forecasts for 1999.
USDA lowered its forecast of 1999 broiler exports to 4.53 billion pounds, down 10% from its September projection of 5.03 billion. Similarly, it trimmed its forecast of 1998 broiler exports to 4.68 billion, down more than 6%% from the September level of 5.01 billion.
The lower export projections coincide with recent U.S. comments suggesting a willingness to provide Russia with food aid to help it through its current financial difficulties.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman told reporters that his department would likely consult with Russia about its food import needs in the weeks ahead. Earlier in the day, Glickman met with the Russian ambassador to the United States.
USDA left it forecast of 1998 U.S. beef and pork exports unchanged at 2.11 billion pounds and 1.25 billion, respectively.
However, it trimmed its projection of 1999 beef exports slightly to 2.14 billion pounds, from its September forecast of 2.16 billion. USDA pegged 1999 pork exports at 1.26 billion pounds, down 3% from its previous projection of 1.30 billion.
Russian wheat production is now forecast at 28.50 million bushels in 1998/99, down 10% from the previous forecast and down 35% from the 1997/98 estimate of 44.20 million.
However, USDA kepts it forecast of Russia's 1998/99 wheat imports unchanged at 2.00 million tonnes, down only slightly from the 1997/98 level of 2.10 million.
Instead, USDA forecast Russia to dip into its domestic wheat stocks to met demand, which is forecast to fall because of the economic crisis.
The department painted a similar picture for Russian coarse grains. 1998/99 production is forecast at 24.90 million tonnes, down 13% from the previous estimate and down 47% from the 1997/98 estimated level of 40.85 million.
But even with the sharp decline in production, USDA kepts it forecast of Russia's 1998/99 coarse grain imports unchanged at 750,000 tonnes, up marginally from 620,000 in 1997/98.
Meat Industry Insights News Service
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