WASHINGTON - U.S. Agriculture Department on Friday reduced its forecast of U.S. pork exports in 1997 and 1998 because of lower-than-expected Japanese demand.
In its monthly supply-and-demand, USDA pegged U.S. pork exports at 1.06 billion lbs in 1997 and 1.15 billion in 1998, down from its September forecasts of 1.10 billion and 1.21 billion, respectively.
"A number of factors are holding exports to Japan below those expected" earlier this year when Japan banned pork imports from Taiwan due to an outbreak there of hog foot-and-mouth disease, USDA said.
Stronger Japanese pork prices as a result of the ban have boosted domestic pork output after a downward trend the past several years, USDA said.
Japanese pork stocks are being reduced and probably will not be maintained at earlier high levels, USDA said.
Japanese retail and food sector demand for pork has also been weaker than expected, USDA said.
Total U.S. pork exports should still increase in 1998. But other suppliers have been able to capture more of the frozen market than the United States "as they seem to be better able to supply the Japanese market with desired pork cuts at competitive prices," USDA said.
USDA noted that Japanese curbs on pork imports "are less likely" to be triggered in 1997 than in recent years.
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