090104: Centrists a Growing Force in Senate's Democrat Majority

When Congress allowed a moratorium on offshore oil drilling to expire this fall, the Democrat majority's intent was clear: It was a temporary move to silence Republicans who'd been hammering them over high gas prices, and the decision would likely be revisited come January.

But the outcome of the 2008 Senate elections could change that calculation. Most of the incoming Democratic freshmen support drilling - some made it a key point on the campaign trail -- and it does not appear that the party's leadership will have enough votes to reinstate the sweeping ban. If any offshore moratorium is to advance, it will likely have to be far more limited than the old one.

In many ways, the drilling debate captures one of the Senate leadership's biggest challenges in the 111th Congress: how to manage an expanded majority that includes a growing group of moderates who may differ with the party's dominant liberal wing on some key issues.

Although Senate Democrats demonstrated unity this year-- they stuck together 87 percent of the time on votes pitting the two parties against each other -- the new members will complicate Majority Leader Harry Reid's efforts to keep his majority together on a variety of issues.

"Some of these issues will take some time," said Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin of Illinois. "We're certainly going to have to work with [new moderates] to find out how their priorities fit with ours."

So far, Democrats will welcome seven new members to their caucus: Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mark Warner of Virginia, both of whom campaigned for offshore drilling, as well as Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Udall of Colorado, Tom Udall of New Mexico, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Jeff Merkley of Oregon.

Most of those incoming freshmen are likely to pursue a centrist course in the Senate. They will expand the ranks of the eight moderates who voted against their party more than 18 percent of the time in 2008, a group that includes Evan Bayh of Indiana (35 percent), Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana (31 percent) and Tim Johnson of South Dakota (20 percent).

The moderates have demonstrated wariness toward big spending and tax policies they view as bad for business. Some also favor a more muscular national security policy than the liberal core of the party.

Domestic energy production is not the only policy that the Senate moderates are expected to influence. Congress will tackle numerous big-ticket items during the administration of President-elect Barack Obama, including a health care overhaul, an economic recovery package costing hundreds of billions of dollars, major tax code revisions and climate change legislation. In nearly every case, Reid will need to muster the backing of almost all Senate Democrats to overcome possible GOP filibusters, so he will have to approach the moderates carefully.

"We won't sacrifice our principles," Nebraska's Ben Nelson warned. "I hope there will be opportunities to seek consensus." Nelson bucked his party majority on 28 percent of the votes in 2008, the third-highest opposition score among Senate Democrats.

The immediate influence of the new Senate Democrats will depend in part on their committee assignments. Senate leaders are still doling out those spots, so it remains unclear whether the freshmen will help draft the most important legislation of the coming year, or if they will have to work largely through floor amendments.

Courtship Required Reid is already wooing the newer members of his caucus -- those elected over the past two election cycles, who returned the Democrats to majority status. He plans to enforce a rule that bars full committee chairmen from holding more than one subcommittee gavel. That would ensure that everyone in the caucus gets a subcommittee chairmanship.

That power-sharing move is bound to build good will among the incoming freshmen, said James E. Campbell, a political science professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo. "This is sort of leadership 101," he said. "You want those people working for you to think they're working with you. [Reid] is better off not getting into a public showdown with the moderates."

Another important question is how willing the new members will be to follow the wishes of Obama, who is expected to be heavily involved in setting the agenda and shaping major legislation next year.

Obama carried six of the seven states the new Democratic senators represent (all but Alaska), so on some issues the new president and those senators may find considerable agreement, said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University. "They'll stick with Obama, at least for a while, because they were elected in states that Obama carried," he predicted.

But Campbell sees no incentive for the new senators to cooperate with Obama unless his proposals are in line with their own ideology. "These guys have been through tough elections," Campbell said. "They're basically on their own and have a greater responsibility to do what's right than to listen to Reid or Obama."

That dynamic could play out as soon as the huge economic stimulus plan hits the floor. In the House, the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats are already muttering in alarm at the size of the emerging package.

It remains to be seen how bothered the new Senate Democrats will be -- or their more seasoned fiscally conservative colleagues. Some Senate Democrats who voted against help for Wall Street in the fall may take a different view this time. "The political advantage here is money for Main Street" as opposed to assistance to the investment community, Abramowitz said.

Reid's relationship with his new teammates has implications for his own re- election in 2010, a campaign that will rely on his ability to appeal to middle- of-the-road voters in Nevada. Much like his new colleagues, Reid rejects gun bans. And when it comes to energy production, Reid may be able to strike a deal with Democrats who support drilling and other forms of fossil fuel extraction in return for their support for incentives for renewable energy, like solar power - something sunny Nevada can potentially generate in mass quantities.

Reid's own election bid is one calculation Nelson has already made when it comes to the moderates' strategy. Centrists, he says, "will be there for him to leverage to the extent he chooses to do that."

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